Nabokov Still Belongs in the NHL

On Monday afternoon, reports filtered through that Evgeni Nabokov had terminated his Continental Hockey League (KHL) contract with HC SKA St. Petersburg due to what was called “family circumstances” or personal reasons. Because the contract was mutually ended by both sides, Nabokov will not receive the remainder of his four-year, $24-million salary. And since he played games for another league in Europe, he must clear waivers in order to play in the NHL again.

In 22 games with SKA, Nabokov went 8-8-5 with a 3.02 goals-against average and .888 save percentage. His final KHL game was last Friday, but was pulled after giving up two goals against Nizhny Novgorod. Although those are sub-par statistics for one of the world’s best goalies last season, it had to be expected due to the difficult transition that a goalie must make when going from the NHL to the KHL.

While many fans will read about his KHL struggles and view his stats as a sign he’s no longer a viable NHL goaltender, I will shed some light, from a scout’s point of view, on why this is far from the truth. With only one or two teams in need of a full-blown upgrade in goal, the odds are stacked against his return. But that does not discredit the monumental presence he would bring to a team that needed help in between the pipes.

At 35 years of age, and with 10 solid years spent in the Sharks organization, Nabokov’s experience is the most important aspect of his continued success in the NHL. Especially in the last 10 months, Evgeni has had to deal with more adversity than any other year in his career. And since emotional and mental adversity only makes a goalie stronger, he has an even wider professional scope of stopping pucks than ever before.

It started with the 2010 Winter Olympics, where his play for Russia fell well below expectations. Considered as a scapegoat for a country that could have easily challenged Canada and the USA for the Gold Medal, he returned to the NHL with even more pressure to perform well in the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs. Despite his solid play against the Colorado Avalanche and Detroit Red Wings in the first two rounds, he fell short of lofty expectations against the Blackhawks. The final straw had been broken and it was the end of a very successful goaltending era in San Jose.

Nabokov left the Sharks after one of his most successful professional seasons. In 71 games, he posted a 44-16-10 record with a 2.43 goals-against average and .922 save percentage. Regardless of these fantastic numbers, his short leash was yanked off his neck and he was left to walk as a free agent. Combined with his new KHL contract, a stigma that he could no longer stop pucks in the NHL was born.

—–[ TGG ]—–

When explaining why Nabokov still belongs in the NHL, I have to look at where he’s truly needed. Many people would say Washington, but Capitals head coach Bruce Boudreau has stated numerous times that the team is committed to Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth. Other analysts would say Chicago, but there’s no way they could fit Nabokov under the salary cap. The Islanders are always a team rumored to want a goalie upgrade, but the truth is that Rick DiPietro and Dwayne Roloson is a terrific tandem that most teams would love to have.

But for a potent offensive club like the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team where goaltending is clearly the weak link, employing Nabokov could mean the difference between missing the playoffs by a point and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. At this point in the season, it has become clear that the tandem of Dan Ellis and Mike Smith is simply not producing the kind of results that instills confidence in their teammates, the coaching staff or the front office. A change sooner rather than later, in my opinion, is in order.

As soon as I heard Nabokov was once again a free agent, the Tampa Bay connection was made. To me, they’re a match made in heaven. Not only has Tampa Bay experienced tremendous success with another Russian goalie by the name of Nikolai Khabibulin, but they quite possibly couldn’t find anyone better to step in and eliminate the blue crease blunders.

Below I will explain just a few of the reasons why Nabokov is a great fit for the Lightning, which will also prove why he still belongs in the NHL.

1. EXPERIENCE INSTILLS CONFIDENCE - Maybe the most obvious asset Nabokov brings to Tampa Bay is experience. Because he has witnessed it all and been through the highs and lows of many playoff wins and losses, he plays with a certain level of confidence that neither Ellis nor Smith carries. His winning attitude and calm demeanor is similar to what Jaroslav Halak instills in the St. Louis Blues and what Carey Price brings to the Montreal Canadiens. They have the confidence needed to battle through a bad goal, a bad game or a bad month.

In similar fashion, Nabokov is an unflappable netminder rarely fazed by anything. He rarely displays a negative reaction or loses control of his emotions. He’s an extremely focused individual in practice and in games and has the playoff success to prove it. Because of this element, a potent team like the Lightning would truly benefit from his veteran presence.

Experience also lends a hand to timeliness. When the Lightning has needed a big save from their goalie, more often than not, it hasn’t been made. But one thing that Nabokov brings on a nightly basis is making the right saves at the right time. Regardless of how many shots he faces or who he’s up against, very few goalies have been more timely in their career than Nabokov.

2. A WORKHORSE OVER A TANDEM - At the start of the season, the tandem of Smith and Ellis seemed like a great way to force one to develop a starter’s mentality, which would ultimately forge a leader by the end of the year. But 10 weeks into the season, neither one has grabbed the proverbial bull by the horns. I personally feel Smith has made terrific strides and improvements in his game, while Ellis has allowed off-season distractions to spill over into his regular season. He hasn’t proved to his teammates he’s capable of winning more than a few games in a row and I don’t see any adjustments or improvements to his technique.

By bringing in a true workhorse like Nabokov, the Lightning would get much more consistency and steady netminding. More specifically, the defensemen would not have to adjust their communication efforts depending on which goalie is playing. Both Smith and Ellis love to move the puck when given the opportunity. This element, albeit somewhat trivial compared to the others, would be eliminated with Nabokov playing close to 80% of the games.

In my opinion, tandems only work when there’s a true veteran in the mix, or both goalies are capable of going on very intense winning streaks. In Washington, we’ve already seen Neuvirth go on a tear in October and carry the workload as if he was the clear-cut starter. But right now we are seeing both goalies struggle to win a game for the Capitals. Although goaltending is not the main reason they are struggling, neither of them is in a good rhythm right now and this makes it tough on the coaching staff to choose who to start on a nightly basis.

If Nabokov were to sign in Tampa Bay, Smith (or Ellis) would instantly benefit from having a veteran talent like Nabokov in the lineup. Again, I defect to the goalie with more long-term potential, so I feel Smith would learn an immense amount from absorbing Nabokov’s game on a daily basis. He would become much more consistent and understand what it truly means to be a steady competitor in the NHL.

3. NABOKOV’S ECONOMICAL STYLE - The most important aspects of Nabokov’s continued success in the NHL is his economical style and technique. Using hybrid elements of the stand-up and Vladislav Tretiak style of goaltending, Nabokov is able to maintain high levels of energy throughout the course of a game, and a season as well. He’s one of the only goalies to play ~70 games in a season and still go deep in the playoffs. He rarely over-exerts himself, he minimalizes the number of times he drops into the butterfly and he relies on solid positioning to stop the puck.

In a Lightning uniform, this style would be a huge benefit and upgrade to the team’s defense. Nabokov would make the lives of his defensemen so much easier, as his rebound control is terrific and he can absorb shots and manage the puck (and a game) better than most NHL goalies. Again, experience lends a hand to his ability to read plays, track pucks and conserve not only his own energy, but his defensemen’s as well.

It should also be pointed out that Tampa Bay allows just 27.1 shots per game, which is 2nd in the NHL behind St. Louis’ 26.7 shots. For Nabokov, this would breed a terrific sense of familiarity, as his years in San Jose saw him face under 30 shots on a regular basis.

It’s a major difference when you compare it to Ellis and Smith, who are rhythm goalies that play much better when they are facing shots on a consistent basis. Their lack of experience carrying a starter’s role makes it tough for them to go five or six minutes without facing a shot. But because of this, the element of patience is another benefit Nabokov would bring to Tampa Bay’s crease. He’s calm, cool and collected and never lunges out at pucks, therefore he’s able to still make efficient saves despite not seeing a shot for five or six minutes.

—–[ TGG ]—–

As you can see, the factors above clearly make Nabokov an excellent fit and a quality upgrade for the Lightning. There’s a million more reasons why he could be signed for a fair value and once again succeed in the NHL for this season and beyond. He’s no less of a talent than he was before he chose to play in the KHL and his tough experiences over the last season only give him a thicker skin and a better understanding of what it takes to win when it matters most.

My final thought on the situation relates to Tampa Bay’s confidence in the Smith / Ellis tandem. How many times have they publicly stated they are not looking for a better solution in goal? It’s a big difference when you look at how many times George McPhee and Bruce Boudreau has stated that they are not looking for an upgrade to their young and inexperienced tandem.

When I discussed Nabokov’s ability to improve Tampa Bay’s goaltending yesterday on Twitter, many of my followers had quality questions regarding his ability to come back and still be successful in the NHL. Below are just a couple of the questions I received, along with some of my answers.

1. LADYHATTRICK – Do you see him returning as a starter for somebody, or their backup, and will he accept that role?

As written above, I could see Nabokov returning as a starter for the Lightning. No other team is struggling with their goalies to the point they would sign a goalie like Nabokov. Unless an injury to a workhorse starter takes place, I don’t see any other team showing interest in him. I think that, depending on the team, Nabokov would gladly accept a backup role. Any opportunity at this stage in his career is better than nothing, so desperate times call for desperate measures and I’m sure he would be fortunate just to wear an NHL jersey at this point.

2. GILDEDGREEN – How long would you expect him to last in the NHL this time?

Because Nabokov plays such an economical style, he can easily play at the NHL level for another 3-4 years. Nobody plays this Tretiak hybrid style better than Nabokov, and his career numbers are a true reflection of his ability to be a steady and consistent workhorse. Less is almost always more for a goalie, and he’s a master at conserving energy over long stretches of time. Health is always the most important factor for a goalie prolonging their career into their late 30′s, but if any goalie is capable of doing it, Nabokov is at the top of the list.

3. BILLYRAMIREZ – If Nabby goes to TB, who becomes the odd man out?

This could go either way. And since I can only speculate what the organization would decide if they did sign Nabokov, I feel the best decision would be to waive or trade Ellis. Smith has clearly improved his technique much more than Ellis has over the last six months and I feel Smith’s combination of size, speed and technique makes him a more valuable asset in the short and long term in Tampa Bay. Ellis is a terrific goalie, but he has displayed a lack of mental toughness and consistency so far this season. In his biggest opportunity to grab a starting role, he has yet to take advantage.

—–[ TGG ]—–

In conclusion, this piece is meant to dispel some of the negative and erroneous stigmas that exist about Nabokov. Talk to any scout, head coach or general manager in the NHL and almost all of them will comment on just how many good things he would bring to an NHL table. A few bad months in the KHL has zero impact on his ability to succeed in the NHL. No goalie has an easy transition going overseas, just ask another Sharks goalie, Thomas Greiss. As the season has gone along, he has re-acquainted himself with the larger surface and played much better recently. I am more than positive the same would have happened with Nabokov.

I can only imagine how tough it must have been for Nabokov to mentally stay focused in the past four months. When someone has dedicated 10 years to the same organization and been on the cusp of making it to the Stanley Cup Finals so many times, it can cause many goalies to simply give up. In this situation, I have to think he’s now even more motivated to prove to himself and the entire NHL that he can take a team to the promise land.

At this point, at his age, with his keen ability to stop pucks on a consistent basis, all Nabby needs is the opportunity.